EssayFinance

All’s fair in love, war and talent: why, when and how to pay bonuses.

Business is warfare, and the battle for good people never pauses. What forty years of research says about bonuses, how Sheng Siong and the shipping lines share the spoils, how multinationals structure theirs, and when a Singapore SME should pay.

By Founding Partner, Nitro Advisory
10 min read
Exhibit · Issue #36

Business is warfare. You fight for customers, for margin, for the next contract. And as the saying goes, all's fair in love and war.

That includes one of the toughest battles a business fights: attracting and keeping good people. Your best performer gets a call from a recruiter every month. Your competitor is quietly hiring. The battle for talent never pauses for the festive season, and the bonus is one of the few weapons every employer holds, whatever its size.

It's mid-November. In most Singapore companies with a December year-end, the bonus decision is being made right now, in the founder's head, usually somewhere between "we had a decent year" and "but cash is tight". This essay is about making that decision well: why bonuses matter, what the research says, how the big companies run them, and when to pay.

Why Pay a Bonus at All?

A salary pays for the job. A bonus pays for how the job was done.

That distinction is the whole point. A bonus acknowledges effort in a way a fixed salary can't, and it gives a tangible reward for outsized performance. It also does something quieter: it tells people the company noticed.

It isn't a fringe practice in Singapore. In the Ministry of Manpower's Report on Wage Practices 2025, released in May 2026, 73.2% of private establishments had an annual variable component, the formal name for a bonus that moves with performance, and variable pay made up 13.0% of total private-sector wages. Among firms that raised wages in 2025, the reason cited most often was employee retention.

In other words, your competitors for talent are already using the bonus. The question isn't whether to fight with it. It's whether you're using it well.

What the Research Says

Bonuses have been studied for decades, and the findings aren't all what you'd expect. Here's the short version, from the classics to the latest.

Figure 01 · Forty Years of Bonus Research
What the studies found, and what it means for an SME
StudyWhat it foundFor your business
1982 AkerlofPay above the going rate and people repay it with effort above the minimum: "partial gift exchange"Loyalty works both ways
2000 LazearWhen Safelite moved to pay for performance, output per worker rose sharply: about half from effort, half from attracting better peoplePay for performance also changes who joins
2000 Gneezy & RustichiniA token payment produced less effort than paying nothing at all: "pay enough or don't pay at all"A stingy bonus can do more harm than none
2009 Ariely et al.Very large rewards, with some exceptions, hurt performance on demanding tasks: people choke under pressureReward the year, don't dangle a jackpot
2010 Kruse, Freeman & BlasiProfit sharing was linked to lower turnover, more loyalty and more effort, most strongly alongside good people practicesShare the upside, and manage well too
2012 Card, Mas, Moretti & SaezWhen staff could see colleagues' pay, those below the median grew less satisfied and more likely to look for a new jobRelative pay matters as much as the amount
2017 Bareket-Bojmel, Hochman & ArielyAt Intel, a compliment from the boss or a pizza voucher lifted short-term output more than a small cash bonusMoney works best with genuine recognition
2023 Cullen & Pakzad-HursonUS laws protecting pay discussions were followed by average wages about 2% lower, as employers resisted one-off raisesTransparency cuts both ways
2024 Gallup & WorkhumanWell-recognised employees were 45% less likely to have left two years laterRecognition is a retention tool

Three lessons stand out for an SME owner.

First, loyalty works both ways. George Akerlof, who later shared a Nobel Prize in economics, described the job as a "partial gift exchange" back in 1982. Pay people more than the bare minimum and they tend to give more than the bare minimum back. Treat them as a cost to be squeezed and they'll do exactly what the contract says, and not a minute more.

Second, don't be stingy. Uri Gneezy and Aldo Rustichini's 2000 paper has the best title in the field: Pay Enough or Don't Pay at All. A token reward can signal that the effort wasn't worth much, and people respond accordingly. A S$200 "bonus" after a record year isn't neutral. It's a message.

Third, money isn't the only currency. The 2017 Intel study and Gallup's 2024 research point the same way. Recognition, from someone who means it, does a lot of work on its own. The best bonus is the cheque and the conversation: here's what you did this year, here's what it meant to the business, and here's our thanks.

Learn from Those Who Share the Spoils

Some companies have turned the bonus into a defining part of who they are.

Sheng Siong is the local example. In January 2021, after a record pandemic year, an internal memo reported by the press set out bonuses of up to about 16 months' pay, including the annual wage supplement, for 2020. Part-timers got about 4.7 months, general staff about 8.4 months, and assistant managers and above about 15.7 months. The memo described the variable bonus as 20% of profit before tax. When the business does well, everyone feels it, from the part-timers up.

Taiwan's container shipping lines are the extreme case. During the freight boom, Evergreen Marine was reported to have paid year-end bonuses of up to 52 months' salary for 2022, with most staff receiving between 10 and 45 months. Yang Ming paid about a year's salary at year-end, then up to 30 months more after shareholders approved it.

Nobody is suggesting an SME pays four years' salary as a bonus. The lesson is the design, not the size. When bonuses are paid out of profits, by a clear rule, staff start thinking like owners. They know the pool grows when the business grows. They chase the revenue, watch the costs and push back on waste, because it's partly their money. That's how you get fierce loyalty and outsized performance from ordinary teams.

How MNCs Do It

Multinationals rarely leave bonuses to the boss's mood in December. The typical structure has four parts, and every one of them scales down to an SME.

  • A target bonus for each grade. Every role has a target, set as a share of annual salary, rising with seniority. People know what "a normal year" pays before the year starts.
  • A company multiplier. The bonus pool flexes with the company's results. A great year lifts everyone's payout above target. A bad year shrinks it, sometimes to zero.
  • An individual multiplier. Each person's rating moves their share up or down. The gap between an outstanding rating and an average one is deliberately wide, because rewarding everyone the same tells your best people they're average.
  • Timing after the books close. The performance bonus is paid once the full-year results are known, usually in the first quarter, so it's paid on real numbers, not hopes.

What an SME can take from this is simple. Write the rule down. Tell people at the start of the year how the pool will be set and how individuals will share it. Then the bonus stops being a gift that might not come, and becomes a reward they can work towards.

Keep Up with the Joneses

The key thing is to make sure your company keeps up with the Joneses: recognising outstanding performers and encouraging solid ones.

That means knowing what the market pays. Recruiters' salary guides, industry surveys and MOM's own wage reports are published every year. If your competitors pay two months and you pay half a month, your best people will find out. Don't take loyalty and hard work for granted. Keep up with HR trends and benchmarks so the company doesn't quietly fall behind.

And they will find out, because something has changed.

The Hush-Hush Era Is Ending

A generation ago, pay was private. You didn't ask, and you certainly didn't tell.

That's changing. In a 2025 survey by the CV platform Kickresume, reported by Fortune, nearly 40% of Gen Z respondents said they openly discuss salary at work, roughly double the rate for Gen X. Salary-sharing websites, forums and group chats mean an employee can compare their package with peers across the industry in minutes. In Singapore, the change is slower. Jobstreet by SEEK's Salary Pulse 2026 found many workers still uncomfortable starting a pay conversation. But the direction is clear.

Is that a good thing? Honestly, the evidence is mixed.

The case for: openness exposes unfair gaps, and the 2012 study of University of California staff showed that people care deeply about where they stand relative to colleagues. A company that pays fairly has nothing to fear from comparison.

The case against: in the 2023 study by Zoë Cullen and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson, US laws protecting the right to discuss pay were followed by average wages about 2% lower, because employers became reluctant to give any one person a raise they'd then have to give everyone. And the same 2012 study found that people below the median grew unhappier, while those above it didn't grow any happier.

Times are changing, and perhaps for the better. I'll leave that one open. What isn't open to debate is the practical consequence: assume your staff know roughly what everyone else is paid, inside your company and outside it. Pay as if they do.

When to Pay

Timing matters for two reasons: the message, and the cash.

The message. Many Singapore companies pay the annual wage supplement, the "13th month", in December, and a performance bonus once the results are in. Paying a performance bonus too early, before the year is closed, means paying on guesswork. Paying it too late, months after the year ended, weakens the link between the effort and the reward. Shortly after the books close is usually right.

The cash. This is where founders get caught. As I wrote in the 13-week cash forecast, December bonuses, the CPF on them due in January, Chinese New Year and the fourth-quarter GST all land within about ten weeks. Before you announce a number, put it in the forecast and look at the low point.

And remember the CPF. Bonuses are "additional wages" for CPF, and from 1 January 2026 the monthly ordinary wage ceiling rose to S$8,000, while the annual ceiling stayed at S$102,000. For someone earning S$9,000 a month, S$96,000 of their salary already counts towards that ceiling, so only the first S$6,000 or so of their bonus attracts CPF. For lower earners, the whole bonus usually does. Budget for the employer's share on top of the bonus itself. Your payroll provider or the CPF Board's calculator will give you the exact figure.

If cash is genuinely tight, there's no shame in paying in two parts, for example the annual wage supplement in December and the performance bonus after Chinese New Year, as long as you explain why and keep your word on the second payment. A delayed bonus that arrives as promised builds more trust than a rushed one that strains the business.

A Word to Employees

If you're an employee reading this, the same principle applies to you.

Work is give and take. It's a two-way street. The company that shares its profits in a good year will need your patience in a hard one, and the employee who goes the extra mile in a tough quarter earns the right to ask for their share when things turn. Loyalty can't be demanded from either side. It's built, one year at a time, by both.

Finding the Balance

We're living through a highly uncertain time, with tariffs, AI, interest rates and geopolitics all moving at once. In a world like this, the temptation for a business is to hold every dollar back, and the temptation for an employee is to jump at every offer.

Neither wins the long war. The businesses that come through uncertainty best are the ones whose people chose to stay and fight alongside them. The employees who do best are the ones whose employer noticed.

Find the right balance. Reward outstanding performance clearly. Encourage solid performance fairly. Pay out of profits, by a rule people understand. And don't wait for a resignation letter to discover what your best people were worth.

Sources: Ministry of Manpower, Report on Wage Practices 2025 (May 2026); Akerlof, Quarterly Journal of Economics (1982); Lazear, American Economic Review (2000); Gneezy and Rustichini, Quarterly Journal of Economics (2000); Ariely, Gneezy, Loewenstein and Mazar, Review of Economic Studies (2009); Kruse, Freeman and Blasi (eds.), Shared Capitalism at Work (2010); Card, Mas, Moretti and Saez, American Economic Review (2012); Bareket-Bojmel, Hochman and Ariely, Journal of Management (2017); Cullen and Pakzad-Hurson, Econometrica (2023); Gallup and Workhuman (2024); Kickresume, reported by Fortune (November 2025); Jobstreet by SEEK, Salary Pulse 2026; press reports on Sheng Siong (January 2021) and Evergreen Marine and Yang Ming (2023); CPF Board wage ceilings (2026).